StatSheet Projects Baylor as NCAA Tournament Bubble Team: 03/05/2013

Filed under StatSeed Update on March 5th, 2013
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StatSeed is StatSheet's postseason projections for all of Division I, including the NCAA Tournament, National Invitation Tournament (NIT), College Basketball Invitational (CBI), and the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT). Read more about how StatSeed is calculated.

StatSheet projects Baylor as a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament, but on the outside looking in. The Bears are #75 in the StatSheet StatRank with a 17-13 overall record and an 8-9 record in the Big 12.

During its last four games, Baylor registered a win against West Virginia but also hit a setback with losses to AP #9 Kansas State and RPI #22 Oklahoma and a bad loss to RPI #123 Texas.

Baylor struggles against strong competition, with a 4-10 record against the RPI Top 100 that includes a 1-8 record against the RPI Top 50 and a 1-5 record against AP ranked teams. While the Bears have a single quality win against AP #13 Oklahoma State, they're also weighed down by three bad losses including RPI #123 Texas, RPI #135 Northwestern, and RPI #154 College of Charleston.

The last four teams into the NCAA Tournament with at-large bids are St. John's (16-12, 8-8 Big East, StatRank #63), Southern Miss (22-7, 11-3 Conference USA, StatRank #37), Alabama (19-10, 11-5 SEC, StatRank #58), and Saint Mary's (26-5, 14-2 West Coast, StatRank #39).

The first four teams out are Baylor (17-13, 8-9 Big 12, StatRank #75), La Salle (20-7, 10-4 A-10, StatRank #48), Temple (21-8, 9-5 A-10, StatRank #50), and Virginia (20-9, 10-6 ACC, StatRank #57).

The next four out are Arkansas (18-11, 9-7 SEC, StatRank #71), California (20-9, 12-5 Pac-12, StatRank #41), Maryland (20-9, 8-8 ACC, StatRank #69), and Wichita State (24-7, 12-6 Missouri Valley, StatRank #42).

Regional 1
#1Duke
#2Georgetown
#3Florida
#4Minnesota
#5UNLV
#6Colorado State
#7Arizona
#8Butler
#9Belmont
#10Cincinnati
#11Creighton
#12Alabama
#13Akron
#14Bucknell
#15Davidson
#16Long Beach State
#17CSU
Regional 2
#1Gonzaga
#2Louisville
#3Kansas State
#4New Mexico
#5North Carolina
#6NC State
#7Illinois
#8Memphis
#9Colorado
#10Kentucky
#11Iowa State
#12Boise State
#13Louisiana Tech
#14SDSU
#15Montana
#16Mercer
#17Norfolk State
Regional 3
#1Indiana
#2Miami (FL)
#3Marquette
#4Ohio State
#5Oklahoma
#6Pittsburgh
#7Notre Dame
#8Missouri
#9Oregon
#10MTSU
#11Tennessee
#12Ole Miss
#13St. John's
#14Stephen F. Austin
#15Princeton
#16Niagara
#17Northeastern
Regional 4
#1Kansas
#2Michigan
#3Michigan State
#4Oklahoma State
#5Syracuse
#6Wisconsin
#7Saint Louis
#8VCU
#9UCLA
#10San Diego State
#11Villanova
#12Saint Mary's
#13Southern Miss
#14Valparaiso
#15Stony Brook
#16Robert Morris
#17Texas Southern

NCAA Tourney Projections by Conference


Conf
NCAA
Teams
Conf
Teams
Pct in
NCAA
Big East9 1656.2%
Big Ten7 1258.3%
SEC6 1250.0%
Big 125 1050.0%
Mountain West5 862.5%
Pac-124 1233.3%
ACC4 1233.3%
A-103 1421.4%
Conference USA2 1216.7%
West Coast2 922.2%
Big West1 911.1%
Missouri Valley1 1010.0%
Big South1 119.1%
Patriot1 812.5%
Ohio Valley1 119.1%
SoCon1 128.3%
WAC1 812.5%
MAC1 128.3%
Atlantic Sun1 1010.0%
Sun Belt1 128.3%
Big Sky1 911.1%
MAAC1 1010.0%
MEAC1 137.7%
CAA1 128.3%
Ivy League1 812.5%
NEC1 128.3%
Summit League1 1010.0%
Southland1 128.3%
America East1 911.1%
SWAC1 1010.0%
Horizon1 1010.0%

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Season Preview: Baylor should not be significantly better or worse than last year. Read our Season Preview
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Big 12 Standings

OverallConf
1 Kansas 25-10 14-4
2 Oklahoma 23-10 12-6
3 Iowa State 28-8 11-7
3 Texas 24-11 11-7
5 Kansas State 20-13 10-8
 6Baylor 26-12 9-9
6 West Virginia 17-16 9-9
8 Oklahoma State 21-13 8-10
9 Texas Tech 14-18 6-12
10 TCU 9-22 0-18
Last updated: Apr 10th, 2014

2013-2014 Roster

#21 Isaiah Austin So C 7-1 225
#1 Kenny Chery Jr G 5-11 180
#55 Josh Clemons Jr C 6-8 230
#4 Gary Franklin Sr G 6-2 190
#25 Allerik Freeman Fr G 6-3 200
#2 Rico Gathers So F 6-8 270
#13 John Heard So F 6-5 200
#5 Brady Heslip Sr G 6-2 180
#34 Cory Jefferson Sr F 6-9 220
#20 Logan Lowery Jr F 6-6 190
#12 J. Motley Fr F 6-9 210
#00 Royce O`Neale Jr F 6-6 220
#35 Taurean Prince So F 6-7 210
#15 Chad Rykhoek Fr F/C 6-11 230
#24 Ish Wainright Fr G/F 6-5 245